000
WTNT44 KNHC 240846
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
500 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008
 
THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS SLOWLY WOBBLING ALONG...WELL INLAND OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS...AT ABOUT 295/6.  THE EYE IS ALMOST GONE FROM RADAR
IMAGERY...BUT THE SURROUNDING RAIN SHIELD IS STILL QUITE
SOLID...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE IT EXTENDS
ALL THE WAY DOWN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND EASTWARD BACK TO THE
COAST.  IN ADDITION...A FEW POTENT OUTER RAIN BANDS PERSIST
NEAR AND JUST OFF THE COAST.  WSR-88D VELOCITIES ADJUSTED FOR
ALTITUDE SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS AS STRONG AS ABOUT 50 KT ALONG THE
COASTLINE DUE EAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
TO 50 KT...AND THE COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT.  AS DOLLY PROCEEDS INLAND TODAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG
THE COAST...AND THE COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS
DOLLY IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THIS MOTION
WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE FARTHER INLAND AND OVER INCREASINGLY RUGGED
TERRAIN...SO DOLLY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24
HOURS...AND THE CIRCULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR MORE THAN
36-48 HOURS.  DESPITE THE FORECAST WEAKENING...DOLLY WILL CONTINUE
TO DUMP VERY HEAVY RAINS FOR MANY MORE HOURS...SO A SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL FOR INLAND FLOODING CONTINUES.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 26.9N  98.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 27.3N  99.8W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 27.9N 101.9W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 28.4N 104.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB