000
WTNT44 KNHC 240236
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
1100 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
 
THE EYE REMAINS VERY WELL DEFINED IN THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR ALTHOUGH
IT IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE RADAR IS
SHOWING SOME INBOUND VELOCITIES OF UP TO 78 KT OR SO AT ABOUT 2900
FT. THIS WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE AT
THE SURFACE OVER WATER...BUT NOT OVER LAND...AND DOLLY IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS BASIS. CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS FORECAST IN ACCORD WITH THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WITH DOLLY
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN 36-48 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6.  THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLIDING
EASTWARD A LITTLE BIT...TURNING DOLLY BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
HEADING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
EVEN AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE...DOLLY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREATS WILL CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 26.5N  98.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 26.8N  99.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 27.6N 100.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 28.2N 103.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN