000
WTNT44 KNHC 231500
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
 
DOLLY IS STRENGTHENING. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 964 MB
WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 92 KNOTS. DOPPLER WINDS FROM THE
NWS RADAR AT BROWNSVILLE HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 95 AND 109
KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ALTITUDE...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. IT HAS NOW A RAGGED EYE ON
BOTH VIS AND IR IMAGES.   INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
85 KNOTS...MAKING DOLLY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
RADAR AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING ON A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TRACK OR 305 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...DOLLY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN A LITTLE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF
THE HURRICANE INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
 
SHOULD DOLLY MOVE MORE SLOWLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS THAN WE
ARE FORECASTING...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE
RAINFALL THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTING.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 26.0N  97.0W    85 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 26.5N  97.8W    80 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 27.0N  99.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 27.0N 101.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA