000
WTNT44 KNHC 291437
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007
 
SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM FOR STORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS. THE
CENTER OF MELISSA HAS ALSO BECOME DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTION DUE
TO WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR PATTERN IS COMMON AT THE
END OF SEPTEMBER NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THE CLOUD PATTERN
STILL SUPPORTS TROPICAL STORM STATUS GIVEN THE LARGE AND WELL-
DEFINED CIRCULATION AND THE TIGHT SURFACE CENTER. SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND MELISSA COULD KEEP
ITS STORM STATUS. THEREAFTER...BOTH SHEAR AND A COOL OCEAN WILL
LIKELY TAKE A TOLL ON MELISSA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A
REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF NOT EARLIER.

MELISSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A MODEST SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND A LITTLE AND THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT EVEN KNOW MELISSA
IS THERE...AND IF THEY KNOW...THEY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN A DAY
OR TWO. THAT SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE MODEL SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 15.2N  28.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 15.6N  29.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N  31.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 17.6N  33.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 18.5N  35.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 20.0N  39.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 21.5N  42.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     04/1200Z 23.5N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA