000
WTNT44 KNHC 131446
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007
 
DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO HAS WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL STORM...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
CYCLONE PUSHES FARTHER INLAND.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING ALONG THE
COAST...AND SO THE COASTAL WARNINGS ARE BEING DISCONTINUED. 
HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE...ARE STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10. THIS IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH COLLECTIVELY HAVE HAD A
LEFT BIAS OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE INITIAL MOTION...AND THE CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT
DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS.  TO PUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL
RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR
LANDFALL.  IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z 30.6N  93.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 31.6N  91.7W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 32.6N  89.8W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 33.0N  87.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN