000
WTNT44 KNHC 130856
TCDAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
500 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007
 
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO CROSSED THE TEXAS COAST JUST EAST
OF HIGH ISLAND AROUND 0700 UTC THIS MORNING.  AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY COMPLETED ITS MISSION...AND ON THE
FINAL LEG OUT A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL...850 MB...WIND OF 98 KT WAS
REPORTED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...OR AROUND 75 KNOTS AT THE
SURFACE...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 986 MB. SINCE LANDFALL...
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT HUMBERTO HAS MAINTAINED AN IMPRESSIVE
EYE FEATURE WITH THE STRONGEST BAND OF CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND HUMBERTO WILL NOW BEGIN ITS
WEAKENING TREND OVER LAND.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/7.   HUMBERTO IS BEING STEERED AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS.  A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
THEREAFTER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE TROUGH WILL  CONTINUE EASTWARD AND REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP HUMBERTO OR ITS REMNANTS LINGERING AROUND THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF COAST IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS REASONING AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS
SCENARIO COULD POSE A SERIOUS RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED...AND THE REMAINING HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNGRADED OR LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 29.9N  94.1W    75 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 30.9N  93.5W    55 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 32.2N  92.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 32.7N  90.2W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 32.3N  88.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA