000
WTNT44 KNHC 212031
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007
 
DEAN HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
OF 70 KT IS AGAIN BASED ON TYPICAL DECAY RATES...AND HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE IN THE CYCLONE AROUND 00Z TO ASCERTAIN THE TRUE STRENGTH OF
DEAN.  BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INNER CORE OF DEAN APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY INTACT...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE
CENTER.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW RESTRENGTHENING TO BEGIN FAIRLY
QUICKLY...AND DEAN COULD BE VERY NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE
TIME OF ITS LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN GULF.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY THE RECENT DECAY AND HAS BEEN
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME DISRUPTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF CENTRAL MEXICO...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE FROM DEAN COULD END UP
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE 280/17...AND THERE CONTINUES TO
BE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO STEER DEAN ON A TRACK
JUST NORTH OF WEST.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE DIVERGENT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A BIT OF JOG TO THE RIGHT JUST
BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 19.4N  91.3W    70 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 19.8N  93.9W    85 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 20.5N  97.1W    95 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN