000
WTNT44 KNHC 172043
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007
 
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EARLIER TODAY
INDICATED THAT DEAN REACHED 110 KNOTS.  NEXT PLANE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH DEAN AROUND 00 UTC TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN EYE FEATURE...NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
WHICH ARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE  OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASES WESTWARD. THIS
WOULD CALL FOR AN OVERALL UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS....GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
 
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN DEAN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS
OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE
OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK
HISTORY.   THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 15.0N  64.5W   110 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N  67.4W   115 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 16.4N  70.8W   120 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 17.3N  74.0W   125 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N  77.0W   130 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N  84.0W   130 KT
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 22.0N  90.0W   100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     22/1800Z 24.5N  96.0W   105 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA