000
WTNT44 KNHC 162031
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE EYE OF DEAN
AND THE DATA SO FAR INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FLUCTUATION BETWEEN 974 AND 979 MB. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
85 KNOTS. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE AND THE
EXPANSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT DEAN IS STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. DEAN IS EXPECTED
TO CARRY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH IT...ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING.
ONCE DEAN REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES OVER AN AREA OF
VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT...IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND WITH DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE GFDL AND THE HWRF WHICH MAKE DEAN A VERY
INTENSE HURRICANE.
 
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. A STRONG
AND DEEP ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF DEAN.
THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED WESTWARD STEERING DURING THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS WITH SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT AS THE
HURRICANE REACHES THE EDGE OF THE HIGH BY DAY FIVE.  TRACK MODELS
ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT BRINGING THE HURRICANE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.
 
THE FRENCH BUOY...41001...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50
KNOTS. THIS INFORMATION HELPED WITH ESTIMATES OF THE WIND RADII.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 14.0N  56.5W    85 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 14.4N  59.7W    90 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 15.0N  63.5W    95 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N  67.0W   100 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N  70.5W   110 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N  78.0W   115 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N  84.5W   120 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 22.0N  90.5W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE