000 WTNT44 KNHC 142028 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003 ON VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CYCLONE LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED ...HOWEVER THE CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ON ENHANCED IR IMAGES...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING VERY COLD TOPS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...IN A RATHER AMORPHOUS-LOOKING PATTERN. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...BUT THE SYSTEM IS STILL EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AND WE WOULD LIKE IT TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ISOLATED AND/OR SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED BEFORE UPGRADING TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SLOW STRENGTHENING. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE INTENSITY WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION. IF THE SYSTEM IS FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST...THE SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER RESULTING IN A WEAKER SYSTEM. IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES ALONG A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN EXPECTED....IT SHOULD EXPERIENCE LESS SHEAR AND PROBABLY GET STRONGER. IT IS OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT...SINCE 1900...THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY 7 HURRICANES TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...I.E. IN THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLANTIC...DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE WNW...285/9. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACK FORECASTS. THE LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL GET CAUGHT UNDER THE EASTERN END OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CELL AND MOVE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN SHOWN BY THE OTHER MODELS. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...WHICH IS DERIVED FROM THE NOGAPS INITIAL FIELD...SHOW A NORTHWARD MOTION DEVELOPING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE MOST RECENT GFDL AND U.K. MET OFFICE TRACKS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE'S NORTHWARD MOTION COULD BE BLOCKED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 11.2N 42.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 11.7N 43.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 12.5N 44.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 13.3N 44.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 14.2N 45.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 16.0N 46.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 17.0N 47.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 18.5N 47.5W 65 KT