000 WTNT44 KNHC 132039 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER NOW APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE NOW A CONSENSUS 2.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR INTENSIFICATION...AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS INDICATIVE OF SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT VERY BULLISH ON STRENGTHENING...AND IS BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN CENTER FIXES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/7 IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IT IS VERY RARE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE A FULL TRANSIT OF THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLANTIC THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST TAKES THE CYCLONE VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS SIMILAR TO THE MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN GET AS FAR WEST AS SHOWN HERE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 9.6N 38.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 9.8N 39.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 10.0N 41.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 10.4N 42.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 10.8N 43.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 11.5N 45.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 12.5N 47.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 13.5N 49.0W 55 KT