000 WTNT44 KNHC 212110 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2003 THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DEVELOPED CONVECTION...BANDING FEATURES...AFTER BEING DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEST WIND FROM A SHIP SOUTH OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...IT IS ASSUMED THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND ONLY THE INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA COULD HINDER INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODEL. AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST...THIS RAPID ORGANIZATION TREND CAN BE EASILY REVERSED AS IT OCCURED LAST NIGHT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 295 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS WHICH BRING WHATEVER SYSTEM IS THERE...OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...JUST TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 14.7N 66.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 15.5N 67.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 16.5N 70.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 17.5N 72.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 19.0N 74.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 21.5N 76.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 24.0N 78.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 26.0N 79.0W 60 KT