000
WTNT43 KNHC 180855
TCDAT3
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

The system became a little better organized overnight at the 
northern end of its associated broad surface trough over the central 
Gulf of Mexico.  Satellite images show increasing deep convection 
along with more curvature to the low clouds, suggesting that the 
ill-defined center of this system is trying to re-form farther to 
the north. Since it still lacks a well-defined center, the system 
remains a potential tropical cyclone.  Recent scatterometer data 
indicate that winds have increased to at least 30 kt and have grown 
over a larger area on the east side of the circulation.

The initial motion is a highly uncertain 360/12.  There is fair 
agreement that this northward motion, with some re-formation of the 
center, will continue as the system remains steered by a 
subtropical ridge to the southeast.  The low should then turn 
northeastward and move across the southeastern U.S.  No 
significant changes were made to the previous track forecast and 
the guidance is in fairly good agreement. It should also be noted 
that model "spaghetti" plots are not doing a good job tracking the 
center of this system, and could give a very misleading impression 
on the forecast track if used by themselves. 

There is still a lot of shear over the Gulf of Mexico and that 
should continue through landfall.  However, the system is somewhat 
hybrid in nature and the shear shouldn't prevent its intensification 
to a tropical storm later today (possibly with subtropical 
characteristics).  Model guidance is consistent with slow 
strengthening until landfall, and the new forecast is close to the 
previous one.  After landfall, most of the global models show a 
strong band of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds persisting 
on the southeastern side.  The expected large distance from the 
center necessitates extending the Tropical Storm Warning into the 
northwestern Florida panhandle.  The system will likely dissipate in 
about 3 days over the southeastern United States.
 
Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive
well in advance of landfall.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, considerable 
flash, urban and small stream flooding beginning today and 
continuing through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast with 
flood impacts spreading northeastward into the Southern 
Appalachians.  
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin today in areas
near and well to the east of the center along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 25.2N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  18/1800Z 27.0N  91.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  19/0600Z 29.2N  91.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 31.0N  89.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  20/0600Z 32.6N  87.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  20/1800Z 34.5N  85.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake