000
WTNT43 KNHC 090857
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

Leslie has been steady state overnight.  The low-level center is
estimated to be on the southern side of a persistent area of deep
convection.  The satellite intensity estimates are largely
unchanged, so the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this
advisory.

The tropical storm is moving southeastward at 11 kt steered by the
flow on the southwest side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough.
This motion, but a slower pace, is expected during the next 24 to 36
hours as the trough pulls away.  After that time, another trough is
expected to dig southward over the north Atlantic, which should
cause Leslie to accelerate east-northeastward.  Although the models
are in fair agreement for the next few days, they remain in in poor
agreement on whether or not the trough will continue to carry Leslie
eastward or leave the storm behind around day 5.  The GFS and ECMWF
have flip flopped, with the GFS now showing Leslie meandering over
the east Atlantic by day 5 and the ECMWF moving the system eastward
toward Morocco.  The ensemble spread remains large in those two
global models and there has not been much run-to-run consistency
either.  The NHC track forecast remains near the various consensus
aids, which is usually a good place to be when there is considerable
uncertainty like this.

Leslie should slowly strengthen during the next few days while
it moves over slightly warmer waters and into a more moist
environment.  These favorable conditions should allow Leslie to
become a hurricane once again, likely within a day or two.
Weakening is expected to commence this weekend when Leslie is
forecast to move over cooler waters and into an atmosphere of
stronger shear and drier air, and the system is forecast to become
post-tropical by day 5.  However, the long range intensity forecast
is strongly linked to where Leslie will be, so since the track
forecast is uncertain, the intensity prediction is likewise.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 32.2N  43.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 30.8N  43.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 29.2N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 28.1N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 28.4N  40.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 31.2N  33.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 33.5N  23.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 34.0N  17.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi