546 
WTNT43 KNHC 040848
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018

Leslie has shown no appreciable changes in its structure during the
past several hours, and it continues to be a little thin on
convection within its eyewall.  Another more impressive band of
convection extends nearly more than 120 n mi northwest of the
center of the ragged eye.  The initial intensity remains 70 kt for
this advisory, mainly based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from
TAFB and SAB and an earlier SATCON estimate.  Leslie's center has
reached sea surface temperatures of 26 degrees Celsius, and these
marginal water temperatures are likely to cause a gradual decrease
in the cyclone's winds during the next several days.  The new NHC
intensity forecast is mainly just an update to the previous
forecast, largely following the HCCA guidance and the ICON
intensity consensus.

Leslie continues to move northward, or 350/7 kt, between a
shortwave trough south of Nova Scotia and a mid-level ridge over
the central Atlantic.  This northward motion should continue for
the next 36 hours before Leslie becomes trapped between two
mid-level highs and is isolated from the mid-latitude westerlies to
the north, thus causing its forward motion to nearly stall by 48
hours.  By days 3 through 5, Leslie should feel enough influence
from the westerlies and an approaching cold front to cause it to
move a bit faster toward the east or east-southeast over the north
Atlantic.  Like the intensity forecast, no major changes were
required to the official track forecast, which is merely an update
to the previous NHC prediction.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These
swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
and Atlantic Canada on Friday.  Please consult products from your
local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 31.4N  57.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 33.0N  57.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 35.1N  58.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 36.3N  58.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 36.8N  57.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 36.3N  54.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 35.5N  51.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 34.5N  48.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg