712 
WTNT43 KNHC 011431
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 01 2018

Leslie is gradually becoming better organized.  A large band of
deep convection exists on the west side of the circulation and some
fragmented bands are beginning to form on the east side.  Overall,
Leslie appears more symmetric than it has been during the past
couple of days due to a decrease in wind shear.  Despite the
improved appearance, the satellite intensity estimates are largely
unchanged, so the initial intensity is held at 50 kt, near the high
end of the estimates.

Since Leslie is forecast to be in a low wind shear environment
and expected to move over slightly higher SSTs during the next
couple of days, slow strengthening is predicted.  Most of
the models show Leslie becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours, and
the NHC forecast follows suit.  By late in the week and this
weekend, Leslie is expected to move north-northeastward back over
its previous track, where it has upwelled cooler waters.  These less
conducive oceanic conditions should cause a slow decay.

Leslie continues to drift to the southwest on the east side of a
mid-level high, and a continued slow south to southwest motion
is expected during the next couple of days.  Thereafter, a
developing shortwave trough to the west of Leslie should cause it to
move north-northeastward but only at a slightly faster pace.  The
NHC track forecast is nudged to the left of the previous one to come
into better agreement with the latest guidance.  Regardless of the
details of the forecast track, there is high confidence that Leslie
will meander for quite a while over the central Atlantic.

Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the
Bahamas, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through
tonight.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.  Although the swells will diminish slightly by Tuesday,
they are expected to increase again over the Bahamas and most of the
Greater and Lesser Antilles late Wednesday and Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 33.2N  54.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 32.7N  54.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 31.6N  55.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 30.7N  55.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 30.4N  56.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 32.5N  55.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 35.7N  54.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 37.4N  52.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi