000
WTNT43 KNHC 191434
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

Despite traversing across sea-surface temperatures less than 10C,
Gonzalo has been able to maintain convection near the center. A 0845
UTC AMSU overpass also revealed that Gonzalo still had a deep warm
core that extended above the 200 mb level. Oil rigs in the
southeastern quadrant have reported sustained hurricane-force winds
during the past few hours, with oil rig VEP717 reporting a sustained
wind of 85 kt more than 80 nmi from the center of Gonzalo. Since
this report originated from a height of 130 meters, the initial
intensity will remain at 75 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 055/45 kt. The global and regional
models are in good agreement on Gonzalo turning east-northeastward
during the next 12 hours or so, and then maintaining that motion
over the far north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates in 2-3
days. The official track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF models, and is near the latest forecast guidance from the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center.

Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today, and
gradually weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time,
post-tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain storm-force winds over
the north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC intensity
forecast is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 49.0N  47.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/1200Z 54.5N  23.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  21/0000Z 57.0N   6.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/1200Z 62.1N   2.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart