000
WTNT43 KNHC 190832
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

A small CDO feature persists near the center of Gonzalo, although
cloud tops have warmed a bit recently. The initial intensity has
been nudged downward to 75 kt for this advisory, assuming some
weakening now that the cyclone is moving over SSTs of less than 15
deg C. Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today and
weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, post-
tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain an intensity of 45 kt over
the north Atlantic until the system dissipates shortly after 48
hours. The NHC intensity forecast is based on guidance from the
global models and the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

Gonzalo has accelerated over the past 6 hours and is now racing
northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 040/45 knots. The
global models are in good agreement on the cyclone accelerating
east-northeastward over the north Atlantic during the next couple of
days. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
models through dissipation and is near the latest guidance from OPC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 46.3N  52.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 50.1N  44.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/0600Z 53.4N  31.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  20/1800Z 56.2N  15.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/0600Z 58.5N   2.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan