000
WTNT43 KNHC 172057
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

Another reconnaissance plane has been in and around the eye of
Gonzalo and found no significant change in the structure of the
hurricane. Maximum flight-level winds were 124 kt, but the highest
SFMR wind was 88 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
estimated to be 100 kt. The minimum central pressure remains around
949 mb. Although there has been a slight decrease in the surface
winds, no significant change in intensity is expected before the eye
crosses Bermuda in a few hours. Due to the large observed
differential between the winds at the surface and aloft, a higher
than normal gust factor has been used in this advisory.

After Gonzalo passes Bermuda, increasing shear and cooler waters
along the track of the hurricane should result in a faster
weakening.  Gonzalo is likely to transition into a post-tropical
cyclone by 36 to 48 hours as it moves near or south of Newfoundland.
This is the consensus of most of the global models.

Aircraft fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving toward the
north-northeast or 025 degrees at 14 kt. Gonzalo should accelerate
and turn to the northeast once it becomes completely embedded within
the faster southwesterly mid-latitude flow ahead of a deepening
trough along the east coast of the United States. There has been no
change in the guidance, and the NHC forecast is similar to the
previous one.

Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely. Although specific
amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an
estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a
major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with
Gonzalo.

Given the proximity of this dangerous hurricane to Bermuda, NHC will
provide hourly position updates until Gonzalo clears Bermuda.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 31.7N  65.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 34.1N  63.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 38.7N  60.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 44.7N  54.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 50.5N  45.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/1800Z 56.5N  18.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/1800Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila