000
WTNT43 KNHC 171455
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014


Gonzalo is under surveillance by a NOAA hurricane hunter plane and
its eye is in the scope of the Bermuda radar.  Maximum winds
measured so far by the SFMR on board the plane are 104 kt, and on
this basis the initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt. This slight
weakening is in agreement with the fact that the eye on satellite is
not as distinct as it was 12 hours ago, and the Dvorak t-numbers are
decreasing.

Although it appears that a gradual weakening has begun, Gonzalo is
expected to be a dangerous Category 3 hurricane as it
moves near or over Bermuda later today. After that time, increasing
shear and cooler waters along the track of the hurricane should
result in a faster weakening.  Gonzalo is likely to transition
into a post-tropical cyclone by 36 to 48 hours as it moves near or
south of Newfoundland, and become fully extratropical thereafter.

Radar and aircraft fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving
toward the north-northeast or 025 degrees at 14 kt. Gonzalo should
accelerate and turn to the northeast once it becomes completely
embedded within the faster southwesterly mid-latitude flow ahead of
a deepening trough along the east coast of the United States. The
guidance remains tightly clustered, and
There is no reason to deviate much from the previous NHC forecast
which shows a powerful hurricane passing near or over Bermuda
later today, and a post-tropical cyclone passing south of
Newfoundland in about 36 to 48 hours.

Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo
continues on the current NHC forecast track. Although specific
amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an
estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a
major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with
Gonzalo.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 30.4N  66.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 32.6N  64.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 36.3N  62.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 41.5N  58.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 48.0N  49.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/1200Z 55.0N  25.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/1200Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila