000
WTNT43 KNHC 140855
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that Gonzalo
has continued to quickly strengthen overnight while the eye has
passed just northeast of the British Virgin Islands.  The aircraft
measured a peak flight-level wind of 116 kt in the northeastern
eyewall and SFMR surface winds of 92 kt. A blend of these data yield
an initial intensity of 95 kt for this advisory.  The SHIPS model
and a UW-CIMSS shear analysis show about 15 to 20 kt of south-
southwesterly shear over Gonzalo, which may be why the eye has not
become apparent in infrared imagery.  The shear is forecast to
decrease and remain low during the next few days while the hurricane
moves over warm water. This should allow for additional
strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. Eyewall cycles are
likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity after that time. In
about 3 days, gradual weakening is predicted to begin as Gonzalo
will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures
and into an area of increasing southwesterly shear.  The updated NHC
intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance, and is a little
higher than the previous advisory through 72 hours due to the
higher initial intensity.

Gonzalo is moving northwestward or 315/11 kt.  The hurricane is
expected to remain on a northwestward heading during the next 24 to
36 hours.  After that time, Gonzalo should turn northward, then
north-northeastward ahead a mid-latitude trough that is forecast to
move off the east coast of the United States in 2 to 3 days. Late
in the period, the hurricane should accelerate northeastward in
deep layer southwesterly flow over the North Atlantic.  The track
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there remains
some spread in the forward speed of the hurricane after 72 hours.
The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
is close to the GFEX and TVCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 19.6N  64.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 21.0N  65.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 22.7N  67.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 24.1N  68.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 25.4N  68.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 28.9N  67.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 34.5N  64.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 43.5N  56.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown