000
WTNT43 KNHC 060241
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 05 2014

Bertha briefly became devoid of thunderstorm activity late
this afternoon, however a new burst of deep convection has
developed to the northeast of the center this evening.  The initial
wind speed remains 45 kt and is based on a Dvorak classification of
T3.0 from TAFB.  The vertical shear over Bertha has increased to
more than 40 kt and is expected to increase even further by
Wednesday.  Despite the shear, little overall change in strength is
predicted during the next 24 hours since Bertha will transform into
an extratropical low and gain some energy from baroclinic processes
during that time.

The latest fixes indicate that Bertha has turned northeastward
with a motion of 045/20 kt.  The cyclone should continue
northeastward during the next 48 hours ahead of a mid-latitude
trough that is moving off the northeast United States coast.  Later
in the forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone is predicted to
move east-northeastward to eastward in mid-latitude westerly flow
over the North Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 37.5N  68.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 39.5N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 42.2N  58.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  07/1200Z 45.0N  52.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  08/0000Z 47.3N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  09/0000Z 48.5N  33.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/0000Z 48.5N  17.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown