000
WTNT43 KNHC 031435
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014

Visible satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern of Bertha is
becoming a little better organized, with some banding features
apparent over the eastern portion of the system.  Also, reports
from a hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the low-level
circulation is becoming better defined.  The current intensity
estimate is held at 40 kt, in agreement with SFMR-observed surface
winds from the aircraft well to the northeast of the estimated
center.

The initial motion estimate continues to be northwestward, or
320/18 kt.  The track forecast and reasoning are mostly unchanged
from the previous advisory.  Over the next couple of days, Bertha
should move around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric
anticyclone at a slightly slower forward speed.  Thereafter, the
tropical cyclone is likely to turn northeastward and
east-northeastward while accelerating as it moves into the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The current official forecast is fairly
close to the latest multi-model consensus.

Cirrus motions and animation of water vapor imagery show that the
shear over Bertha has begun to relax a little, and this, along with
an increase in mid-level moisture, should allow for some
strengthening.  In the latter part of the forecast period,
west-southwesterly shear increases significantly, but by that time
it is anticipated that Bertha will have become an extratropical
storm over the North Atlantic.  The official wind speed forecast is
the same as in the previous advisory, and quite similar to the
latest intensity model consensus, ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 22.2N  72.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 24.3N  73.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 27.4N  74.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 30.7N  73.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 33.7N  71.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 39.5N  64.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 44.0N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  08/1200Z 47.5N  43.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch