000
WTNT43 KNHC 021454
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

Bertha remains a disorganized tropical cyclone this morning, as
even with the aid of Doppler radar data it is difficult to find
a closed circulation.  The low-level center is near the western edge
of the main convective mass, which indicates the system is still
affected by vertical wind shear.  However, the convection has become
a little better organized during the past 24 hours, and the outflow
is improving over the eastern semicircle.  The initial intensity
remains 45 kt based on a combination of continuity and Doppler radar
data.

The initial motion is 290/19.  Bertha is approaching the
southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and should turn
northwest during the next 6-12 hours.  A turn toward the north
should occur in about 48 hours as Bertha moves between the ridge
and a deep-layer trough over the southeastern United States.  After
that, the cyclone should turn northeastward as it enters the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The track guidance is in excellent
agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast track is generally
similar to the previous track.  There has been a small westward
shift during the first 12-24 hours, with the center now forecast to
make landfall over the eastern Dominican Republic.

Little change in strength is expected during the next 36 hours or
so as Bertha deals with lingering shear, dry air entrainment, and
passage over the mountains of Hispaniola.  After that, the cyclone
is expected to move into a more favorable environment that could
allow strengthening.  The new intensity forecast is unchanged from
the previous advisory, calling for Bertha to become a hurricane
for a short time after recurvature.  It is possible that passage
over the Dominican Republic could cause Bertha to degenerate to a
tropical wave.  Should that happen, there would be a chance for
regeneration when the system reaches the more favorable environment
to the north.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 17.2N  66.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 18.8N  68.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  03/1200Z 21.2N  71.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  04/0000Z 23.6N  73.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 26.4N  74.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 32.5N  71.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 37.5N  64.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 42.0N  55.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven