000
WTNT43 KNHC 240836
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013
500 AM AST THU OCT 24 2013
 
LORENZO IS BARELY HANGING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. THE
DEPRESSION WAS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION LATE IN THE EVENING
YESTERDAY...BUT A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES
TO AFFECT LORENZO...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTION FROM
ORGANIZING. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...DRY AIR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO LOSE STRENGTH. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS TURNING TO THE LEFT...AND THE LATEST INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/4. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 29.8N  47.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 30.4N  47.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 31.4N  46.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/1800Z 32.5N  44.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI