000
WTNT43 KNHC 222035
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013
500 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013
 
THE EARLIER TREND OF ORGANIZATION ENDED LATE THIS MORNING...AND
THERE HAS BEEN SOME DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LORENZO
SINCE THAT TIME. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE
ASYMMETRIC...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF
CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS MAINTAINED AT 45
KT. A BLAST OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD
REACH LORENZO WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LORENZO SHEARING APART IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WITH
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH BETWEEN 48 AND 72
HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND A BIT LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
 
CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT LORENZO IS LIKELY MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE
EAST OR 085/08. HOWEVER...CIRRUS CLOUD DEBRIS HAS BEEN OBSCURING
THE CENTER SINCE THIS MORNING...MAKING THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE RATIONALE FOR THE TRACK FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED. LORENZO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY EASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK
SHOULD BEND NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS HAIR TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTERLY INITIAL MOTION
AND NEAR BUT RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 29.4N  51.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 29.5N  50.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 29.8N  49.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 30.5N  48.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 31.7N  46.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN