000
WTNT43 KNHC 101502
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013
 
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAD A
CLOSED CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...THANKS TO DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING CHANTAL...WE WERE
ABLE TO LOCATE ENOUGH OF A CIRCULATION TO MAINTAIN ADVISORIES.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG THE PATH OF CHANTAL...ALONG WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF SURROUNDING LAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
GRADUAL WEAKENING. CHANTAL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS...OR
PERHAPS MUCH EARLIER.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER DEFINITION
IS POOR. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER...
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH MOVES EASTWARD AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMANTS DURING THE 2 TO 3
DAYS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT PRIMARILY WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 16.5N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 18.1N  75.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 20.0N  78.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 22.5N  80.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 25.0N  80.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 30.0N  80.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA