000
WTNT43 KNHC 262059
TCDAT3
 
HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF SANDY REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AS STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE
THE SYSTEM.  THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY MAY BE DROPPING BELOW
HURRICANE STATUS.  THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 65 KT PENDING
THE NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SCHEDULED FOR A 0000
UTC CENTER FIX.  THE SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL
REMAIN QUITE STRONG FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEREFORE THE NHC
FORECAST INDICATES WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. 
THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE
PRESUMABLE DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING.  THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREACST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
THAT SANDY COULD TRANSITION INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 3
TO 4 DAYS.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER SLOW AND...IN FACT...RECENT
VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST LITTLE SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER. 
HOWEVER A MORE REPRESENTATIVE ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS NEAR 360/6. 
AFTER SANDY ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
ITS WEST...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  BY AROUND 72
HOURS...A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. EAST
COAST AND A RIDGE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CANADA SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD AND OVER THE
U.S. COAST.  INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM
THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 27.3N  77.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 28.3N  77.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 29.7N  76.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 31.3N  74.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 33.1N  72.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 37.0N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 39.5N  76.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  31/1800Z 41.0N  77.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH