000
WTNT43 KNHC 111439
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012
 
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS VANISHED...AND MICHAEL CONSISTS OF A
TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. GIVEN THAT MICHAEL WAS A HURRICANE...AND
WINDS TAKE TIME TO SPIN DOWN...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS. IN FACT...THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT
ASCAT PASS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER
COOL WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SHEAR...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
IS ANTICIPATED...AND MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY. IT SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN ABOUT 36
HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS.  MICHAEL IS BEING
STEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE
EAST AND A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED
BY A FRONT.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 39.2N  47.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 43.0N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/1200Z 48.0N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA