000
WTNT43 KNHC 072030
TCDAT3
 
HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF MICHAEL HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PERHAPS THE OVERALL SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT
LESS ORGANIZED THAN SIX HOURS AGO.  ALTHOUGH THE RECENT T-NUMBERS
HAVE DECREASED...CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 90-102
KT...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 90 KT.  THE STATISTICAL
AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING MICHAEL SLOWLY WEAKENING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE NEGATIVE PRIMARY FACTORS BEING
SOME WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLING WATERS.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. 
 
MICHAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KT.
MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS GENERAL TRACK IS PROBABLE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE
HURRICANE COULD MOVE BRIEFLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS.  THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE
WEST IN THE 48-96 HR TIME RANGE TO COME CLOSER TO THE TVCA
CONSENSUS.  THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST...WITH MORE OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEPING ENOUGH
SEPARATION FROM LESLIE SO THAT MICHAEL CURVES TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA.  THIS SOLUTION IS FAVORED BY THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 31.4N  41.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 31.8N  41.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 32.3N  42.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 33.1N  42.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 33.6N  43.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 35.4N  45.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 42.0N  47.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 52.5N  43.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE