000
WTNT43 KNHC 051440
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
1100 AM AST WED SEP 05 2012
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1102 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MICHAEL HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  THE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BIT
LESS OF A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TILT WITH HEIGHT...AND IMPROVED
CURVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  HOWEVER...DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS AND A 0800 UTC UW-CIMSS
SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUPPORTS HOLDING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT...AT LEAST FOR THIS ADVISORY.  MODERATE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.  HENCE...STRENGTHENING TO A LOW-END HURRICANE IS
FORECAST AT THAT TIME.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST...AND IT IS BASED ON THE IVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
MICHAEL HAS MADE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/05.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 36 PERIOD.  AFTERWARD...A RATHER ABRUPT
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN NORTH OF MICHAEL.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION PERSISTING THROUGH DAY
5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK FORECAST...AND SPLITS THE SEAM BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 28.3N  43.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 29.0N  43.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 29.7N  42.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 30.3N  42.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 31.0N  42.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 32.1N  44.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 33.3N  45.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 34.7N  46.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS