000
WTNT43 KNHC 050238
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE STORM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CENTRAL
CONVECTION.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
REMAIN AT 45 KT...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. 
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER MICHAEL IS PREDICTED TO STAY MODERATE TO STRONG
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM.  LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF AND
MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS COULD RESULT
IN DECREASING SHEAR AND AN ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
MICHAEL IS NEAR A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES IN THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW... AND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY.  THE STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH.  THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA IN 48-72 HOURS...HOWEVER...WITH AN ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF MICHAEL THERAFTER.  THESE CHANGES IN THE STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE LEFT
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY MOVE AROUND THE EASTWARD-MOVING ANTICYCLONE.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
LIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SOLUTIONS.
 
DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS CONFIRM THAT MICHAEL IS A VERY
SMALL TROPICAL STORM. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 27.4N  43.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 28.1N  43.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 28.9N  43.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 29.6N  42.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 30.0N  42.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 31.2N  43.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 32.0N  44.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 33.0N  45.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH