000
WTNT43 KNHC 202035
TCDAT3
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012
500 PM AST MON AUG 20 2012
 
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOL WATERS HAVE CONTINUED TO TAKE A
TOLL ON GORDON. DEEP CONVECTION IS NEARLY GONE...AND THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS RESEMBLING THAT OF A FRONTAL CYCLONE...WITH THE LARGE
CLOUD SHIELD AND MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY BAROCLINIC REDEVELOPMENT.  THE
POST-TROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SEVERAL HUNDRED N MI
WEST OF PORTUGAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 060
DEGREES AT 14 KT TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
TURN EASTWARD TONIGHT AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 39.2N  20.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  21/0600Z 39.6N  18.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  21/1800Z 39.3N  17.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/0600Z 38.7N  16.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN