000
WTNT43 KNHC 201441
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012
1100 AM AST MON AUG 20 2012
 
THE INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY IN THE AZORES PROVIDED A REPORT OF A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 980 MB ON SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN
AZORES AS GORDON PASSED OVER THAT ISLAND THIS MORNING. A MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE WIND OF 53 KT WITH A GUST TO 70 KT WAS OBSERVED AT SANTA
MARIA AIRPORT. SINCE PASSING THE EASTERN AZORES...GORDON HAS
CONTINUED TO LOSE ORGANIZATION...AND THE CENTER IS INCREASINGLY
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 55 KT...
AND IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND A PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS FROM SHORTLY BEFORE 1200 UTC. GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR...COOL WATERS...AND
UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. GORDON IS FORECAST TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL WITHIN 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 060 DEGREES AT 14 KT.
GORDON IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN EASTWARD AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 38.3N  22.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 39.0N  20.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  21/1200Z 39.2N  18.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/0000Z 39.2N  17.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1200Z 39.0N  16.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN