000
WTNT43 KNHC 160835
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012
500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS
FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE.  MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SUGGEST
THAT THE CENTRAL FEATURES OF THE SYSTEM HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED. 
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB SATELLITE ESTIMATE.  GORDON SHOULD BE
MOVING OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND WITHIN A LIGHT-TO-MODERATE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ALMOST ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STORM CLOSE TO OR BECOMING A HURRICANE WITHIN 72
HRS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FROM 48-72
HR...AND IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
 
GORDON APPEARS TO HAVE RECURVED AND IS MOVING ABOUT 015/12 KT.  THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD AROUND
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME...GORDON SHOULD INTERACT MORE WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF A TROUGH.  WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THERE HAS
BEEN A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK IN THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION.
WHILE GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AZORES IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...
MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL AT THAT
TIME.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 32.2N  54.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 33.5N  53.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 34.6N  50.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 34.5N  46.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 34.4N  42.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 35.0N  34.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 36.8N  27.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  21/0600Z 39.5N  20.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE