000
WTNT43 KNHC 221438
TCDAT3
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012
1100 AM AST FRI JUN 22 2012
 
CHRIS HAS NOT HAD SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...
SO IT IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH 40-KT WINDS.
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE THE SYSTEM IS
OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 20C...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST.  CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL
LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWING THE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
 
THE CYCLONE IS LOOPING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE OTHER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND HAS A MOTION OF 255 DEGREES AT 14 KT.  CHRIS
SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE
MERGING WITH THE OTHER LOW.
 
THE TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII FORECASTS CLOSELY FOLLOW
GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.  ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 44.6N  46.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  23/0000Z 43.5N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  23/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG