000
WTNT43 KNHC 220246
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012
1100 PM AST THU JUN 21 2012
 
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS RETAINS A TIGHT CIRCULATION THIS EVENING AS
BEST OBSERVED BY A 2349Z METOP-A MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE FROM THE
NRL WEBSITE.  AS THE CONVECTION IN THE INNER CORE HAS WARMED...THE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE CANNOT PROVIDE A DATA-T NUMBER FOR INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.  THE MODEL EXPECTED T-NUMBER FROM SAB AND TAFB PROVIDE A
RANGE BETWEEN 45 AND 65 KT.  A 2221Z AMSU PASS SUGGESTED AN
INTENSITY AROUND 55 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE.  THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KT...THOUGH WITH SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN WHILE OVER
QUITE CHILLY WATERS AND IT IS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...OR SOONER...IF RELATIVELY
DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM.
 
CHRIS IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT.  THE TROPICAL STORM SHOULD
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN A DAY AS IT IS ADVECTED AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE.  A SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF CHRIS IS PROJECTED BY ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR HWRF...TO ABSORB THE CIRCULATION OF
CHRIS IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 43.6N  42.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 44.2N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  23/0000Z 43.0N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA