000
WTNT43 KNHC 220243
TCDAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011

HARVEY HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN INCREASING MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AND A SHIP REPORTED 25 KT WINDS ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH OF THE
CENTER AT 0000 UTC. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...HARVEY ONLY
HAS A SHORT TIME OVER WATER SO ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO IN A LITTLE
OVER 24 HOURS.
 
THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING. 
THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  A TURN
TO THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST UNTIL
DISSIPATION.
 
MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY HAS ALREADY MOVED INLAND
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.  OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY INDICATE THAT WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT LAGUNA
VERDE IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.
   
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 19.0N  95.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 19.3N  96.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...ON THE COAST
 24H  23/0000Z 19.5N  97.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN