000
WTNT43 KNHC 062048
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132008
500 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008
 
A TIMELY MISSION FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS...
TASKED WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE...REVEALS THAT THE DEPRESSION
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A
TROPICAL STORM.  PEAK SFMR WINDS WERE 53 KT AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WERE 61 KT.  THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
ABOUT 55 KT.  SINCE THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT ARE
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.  MARCO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND ACCORDINGLY A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND
CONTINUES...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING LATER
THIS EVENING.
 
INITIAL MOTION...295/9...IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH CHANGE IN
HEADING OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS DUE TO A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF MARCO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
WE THANK THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON FOR THEIR QUICK
RESPONSE TO OUR SHORT-NOTICE REQUEST TO INVESTIGATE THIS STORM.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 19.5N  94.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  95.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 20.5N  97.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 21.0N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH