000
WTNT43 KNHC 230242
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008
 
WHILE THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTOBAL HAS DEGRADED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...NEARBY BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING WINDS OF AT LEAST 40-45 KT.
ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  NOW THAT THE EARLIER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED...WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME.  CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  HOWEVER...SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC
FORCING...THE EXTRATROPICAL CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
 
CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND IS NOW MOVING AT
AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 30 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS...SAVE THE UKMET...
SUGGEST A DECREASE IN FOREWARD SPEED BUT THEY DID NOT ADVERTISE THE
CURRENT ACCELERATION.  ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
FASTER THAN AND NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF
RESPECT FOR THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE UKMET.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 44.0N  59.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 45.1N  54.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 45.0N  49.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 43.3N  44.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     25/0000Z...ABSORBED
 
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FORECASTER RHOME