000
WTNT43 KNHC 210244
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008
1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008
 
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE SFMR DATA INDICATED SURFACE WINDS
OF 45 KT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THIS PARTICULAR AREA. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY. NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST...WITH CRISTOBAL HOLDING ON TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS...EVEN WHEN THE CYCLONE COMPLETES AN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AGAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER...BUT ON A SIMILAR
HEADING...045/8.  CRISTOBAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
FORWARD SPEED IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH...WITH FURTHER ACCELERATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER
WESTERLIES.  DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT CRISTOBAL WILL
REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY A LITTLE BIT LONGER BEFORE BEING
ABSORBED BY A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 35.2N  75.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 36.5N  73.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 38.9N  70.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 41.9N  66.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 44.7N  61.7W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 46.0N  55.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     25/0000Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN