000
WTNT43 KNHC 201500
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008
1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT...WITH SFMR MEASURMENTS OF ABOUT 45 KT. SINCE
THEN...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN SATELLITE IMAGES SO THE
MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS HAS SEEMINGLY PREVENTED CRISTOBAL FROM
DEVELOPING MUCH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE GFS SUGGESTS A MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND A LITTLE BIT OF INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AT THAT
TIME. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...040/5. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON AN ACCELERATING TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS
CRISTOBAL BECOMES PICKED UP IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
TRACK.  IN ABOUT TWO DAYS THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO START TO BECOME
ABSORBED BY THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND BE FULLY ABSORBED BY 3
DAYS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 34.5N  76.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 35.2N  75.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 36.7N  73.2W    50 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 38.9N  70.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 42.5N  65.9W    45 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE