000
WTNT43 KNHC 200251
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008
1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008
 
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO INDICATION THAT
CRISTOBAL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING.  CURRENTLY THE STORM IS
CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED...WITH THE COLD TOPS LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF
BANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 40 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT AIRCRAFT AROUND 06Z. 
THE MORE OBVIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS DO FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THESE BEING LIGHT SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT...AND WARM WATERS BELOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
PRIMARILY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.  AT PRESENT THE WIND
FIELD IS VERY ASYMMETRIC.  HOWEVER...IF THE FORECAST STRENGTHENING
OCCURS...CRISTOBAL COULD WRAP SOME OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. 

THERE HAS BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 045/5.  CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...
VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS IT ENTERS THE
WESTERLIES.  ONLY THE NOGAPS AND GFNI TAKE CRISTOBAL CLOSE TO
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.   GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT CRISTOBAL WILL
BECOME ABSORBED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...ALTHOUGH I'VE ELECTED TO SHOW THE SYSTEM AS A SEPARATE
ENTITY A LITTLE BIT LONGER.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 33.4N  77.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 34.1N  76.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 35.2N  75.1W    50 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 36.8N  73.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 39.0N  70.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 45.0N  63.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     24/0000Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN