000
WTNT43 KNHC 190833
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008
500 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008
 
SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT APPEARS TO BE
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND.
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. NEVERTHERELESS...THE SYSTEM
COLD BECOME A 35-KNOT TROPICAL STORM. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK
THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS
AND THIS MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER
THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED UNTIL ABSORBED BY A SHORT WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 32.4N  79.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 33.0N  78.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 34.0N  77.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 35.0N  76.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 36.5N  73.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 39.0N  69.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     23/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA