000
WTNT43 KNHC 190257
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008
 
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL ROTATION. PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM
A SKIDAWAY INSTITUTE OF OCEANOGRAPHY 50 METER TOWER A SHORT
DISTANCE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSEQUENTLY...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS...EITHER FROM COASTAL RADAR OR
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF STRONG WINDS YET...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 040/5.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE
WEAK...WITH THE DEPRESSION SITTING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS AND A WEAKER ONE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WILL CONTINUE...VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION INTO THE
WESTERLIES BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE NEXT
MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE
CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH I'LL NOTE THAT
BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF HAVE TRACKS THAT ESSENTIALLY STRADDLE THE
COASTLINE.  BECAUSE THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT A
POSSIBLE LANDFALL LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT SEEM CONDUCIVE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT.  THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
DRY AIR NEARBY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  EXCEPT FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE MODEL SHIFOR...NONE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM.  HOWEVER...THE SHIPS
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE BASED ON SSTS THAT LOOK AT LEAST 1C COOLER
THAN WHAT THE COASTAL BUOYS ARE REPORTING RIGHT NOW...SO I'M GOING
TO GO A LITTLE ABOVE THAT GUIDANCE AND SHOW JUST ENOUGH
STRENGTHENING TO MAKE THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM.  THE FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITIES REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 31.9N  79.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 32.4N  79.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 33.4N  78.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 34.4N  76.6W    35 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 35.5N  75.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 38.0N  70.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     23/0000Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN