000
WTNT43 KNHC 271438
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007
 
DATA FROM THE ALVARADO RADAR IN MEXICO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER.  T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY... 
SUGGESTING THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS.  THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STAY LOW...SO THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT
ANY TIME.   MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A STRENGTHENING
TROPICAL STORM AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL BE IN THE DEPRESSION AROUND
18Z.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
REMAINS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FORCING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DRIFT TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A
SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO.
 
THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS
PRIMARILY OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/1500Z 20.7N  95.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     28/0000Z 20.4N  95.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     28/1200Z 20.3N  96.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     29/0000Z 20.5N  97.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     29/1200Z 21.0N  99.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA