000
WTNT43 KNHC 142024
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007
 
THE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER INGRID
HAS MATERIALIZED AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME BASICALLY
SHAPELESS WITH NO OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. GIVEN THE CURRENT DETERIORATION
OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DECREASE IN DVORAK T-NUMBERS. MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A PLAGUE OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER
INGRID THROUGH 5 DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER THAN NORMAL
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SHRED THE CLOUD PATTERN...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. I AM SURPRISED THAT SOME MODELS
MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE OR EVEN FORECAST STRENGTHENING...DESPITE THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT...ONLY THE GFS AND THE GFDL BASICALLY
WEAKEN INGRID.
 
INGRID IS MOVING ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OR 305 DEGREES AT 6
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL SLOW TRACK...
WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS WHICH PREVAIL TO THE
SOUTH OF A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE OVER OPEN WATERS WELL NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 15.6N  50.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 16.0N  51.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 17.0N  52.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N  54.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 19.0N  55.3W    30 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N  57.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 22.0N  58.9W    30 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 24.0N  61.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA