000
WTNT43 KNHC 141434
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007
 
FIXES FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH IS CURRENTLY ON A
RESEARCH MISSION INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF INGRID IS CLOSER TO
CONVECTION. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. BASED ON THE
AVERAGE OF FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA FROM THE PLANE...AND 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 40 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THIS INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST SINCE INGRID IS
HEADING TOWARD A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS ARE
ALREADY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ARE IMPINGING ON THE
CYCLONE...OR AS IT HAS BEEN SAID FOR YEARS IN THE SATELLITE
JARGON...A DAGGER THROUGH THE HEART.  THEREFORE...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT INGRID WILL NOT LAST
THROUGH FIVE DAYS.  IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS ALREADY BEGUN
TO DETERIORATE SINCE THIS MORNING'S CLASSIFICATIONS.

INGRID IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND HAS BEEN MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THESE CURRENTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS A MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF INGRID. THIS LOW WILL PROBABLY FORCE THE CYCLONE OR
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH IS BOUNDED
BY THE NOGAPS TO THE NORTH AND BY THE UK TO THE SOUTH.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 15.2N  50.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 15.5N  50.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 16.5N  52.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N  53.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 18.5N  55.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N  57.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N  59.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 23.0N  61.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA