000
WTNT42 KNHC 050836
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122022
500 AM AST Wed Oct 05 2022

The depression is a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level 
center displaced about 40 n mi to the west-southwest of the main 
area of deep convection.  Overall, the system is quite 
ragged-looking and elongated from south to north, with little 
evidence of banding.  The current intensity estimate is held at 30 
kt in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, although 
this may be generous.

Southwesterly flow associated with a large upper-level low 
centered about 700 n mi to the north of the depression is imparting 
strong shear on the system.  Global model guidance indicates that 
this shear will continue, and increase, over the next 48 hours or 
so while the tropical cyclone moves over waters of diminishing 
oceanic heat content.  These negative environmental factors should 
result in the system dissipating in a couple of days.  This is in 
general agreement with the latest LGEM intensity guidance, and with 
the global model guidance that shows the system opening up into a 
trough by late Thursday.

The depression is moving somewhat to the left of previous estimates 
with an initial motion of 320/7 kt.  Over the next day or two, the 
system is expected to move along the southwestern side of a 
mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic.  The official track 
forecast is a little to the left of the previous one, but to the 
right of the model consensus.  This is close to the latest ECMWF 
track prediction.

As noted earlier, some of the model guidance, notably the ECMWF, 
and its ensemble, hints that the system could make a comeback after 
5 days over the subtropical Atlantic.  Given the uncertainties, 
this will not be shown in the official forecast at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 15.8N  31.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 16.8N  32.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 17.9N  33.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 19.1N  35.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch