000
WTNT42 KNHC 211454
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021
 
Grace has continued to move over east-central Mexico since making 
landfall around 0600 UTC.  Visible satellite images show that 
the system's organization is degrading, but there is still some 
deep convection near the center with a few showers and 
thunderstorms near the coast.  Assuming a slightly faster rate 
of weakening than given by the Decay-SHIPS output to account for 
the mountainous terrain, the advisory intensity is set to 60 kt.  
Additional rapid weakening should occur while the cyclone moves 
over the mountains of central and west-central Mexico today and 
tonight.  Grace is likely to weaken below tropical storm strength 
tonight and dissipate tomorrow morning. 
 
After making a southwestward turn just after landfall, the current 
motion is just a little south of west, or 250/11 kt.  A 
mid-level ridge to the north of Grace should cause a generally 
westward motion until dissipation on Sunday.

The mid-level remnants of Grace are expected to continue westward 
after the surface center dissipates, and to emerge into the 
eastern Pacific Ocean by late Sunday.  There is a good chance that 
this will lead to the formation of a new tropical cyclone over that 
basin by early next week.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, 
Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead 
to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood 
of mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 19.7N  98.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 19.4N 100.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  22/1200Z 19.0N 102.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch